2025 has been a year of shake-ups. From the large spending package, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill, to the nation’s longest government shutdown, changes have come out of the woodwork. But on January 1, 2026, we will be standing at the cusp of a major change, one of the biggest changes since 1934.
Since the enactment of the National Firearms Act, everyday citizens have had to pay to exercise their Second Amendment rights. Specifically, the $200 tax stamp required for suppressor ownership. Thanks to the verbiage in this past summer’s OBBB Act, taking that tax down to zero, that all changes.
The ATF’s Position: Staffing and New Director
As the government reopens, the NFA Division of the ATF is in a better position than it could have been. Thanks to work by the American Suppressor Association, NFA Examiners were deemed essential employees for the shutdown—the first time this has occurred during a government shutdown. That means they were brought back to work after only about a week of furlough, eliminating any potential slowdown of transfers.
Another point of news is the nomination of a new BATFE Director, the current Deputy Director Robert Cekada. As the existing Deputy Director, he already knows how the BATFE and specifically the NFA works. Additionally, he is decidedly pro-2A—as proven by his background—and has been a fair and trustworthy individual. At the time of publication, he hasn’t had his Senate hearing for confirmation, but he is seen as a great option to head the BATFE.
UPCOMING CHANGES
So, the tax stamp dropping to zero dollars is obviously a welcome change for firearm enthusiasts. As the first major positive change to the National Firearms Act since its beginning, this has and will continue to have a major impact on transfers.
But let’s remember, all monies generated from the tax stamps never went directly to the ATF, but instead went to a general Treasury fund. So, with an increase in transfers, the money never went to hire additional examiners to help with the influx. That means that regardless of what the new normal becomes, the ATF will still be working with the same number of examiners as before, for bad or good.
Transition Challenges: The Looming Bottlenecks
At the time of publishing, the BATFE has yet to fully expound on how they’re going to handle the switch over to the zero-dollar tax stamp. There are a few challenges that need to be addressed, which the more industry-friendly agency is already planning and working through.
Challenge 1: Form Updates and Error Risk
Let’s start with the simplest issue – updating the forms, specifically the Form 4. This process includes designing, printing, and publishing the new form. The changeover involves a redesign, so muscle memory from previous versions could lead to an uptick in errors on the forms. This obviously would have a larger impact on the paper forms rather than the e-forms. But it still can have issues.
Challenge 2: Processing Flow and E-Form Load
Along the same lines as the paper forms, what will the new order of processing be? Under the current guidelines, paper forms are sent to a clearinghouse in Portland, Oregon, where the tax fee is removed from the form and paperwork and logged. Without the need to separate the tax fee from the paperwork, do the forms still need to go to Oregon, or would they get sent back east, eliminating those extra steps and time sucks to the process?
It is well known that a majority of the forms processed by the BATFE are on their e-forms system. And while faster and more efficient than the paper route, it isn’t without its problems. With a zero tax for transfers, there is a guarantee of an increase in forms submitted for processing. The larger number can bog down the system, slowing things down. As an example, ATF published in November 2025 the processing times for an individual Form 4 was just 10 days.
Challenge 3: Pending Transfers and the Deadline
That brings up the next important factor – what happens with the forms that have already been submitted and are waiting for approval? These small details in all the affected processes, if not handled correctly, could lead to major headaches for all involved in the coming weeks.
According to multiple sources, the ATF is set to officially announce a system close down for Form 1s and Form 4s in preparation for the change. The e-forms system will be closed for those new submissions starting December 26th, so they can clear any pending forms between then and the 29th. The e-forms system will remain closed until the January 1st changeover. Most retailers will stop submitting customers’ e-forms before December 26th in anticipation of the close down.
Challenge 4: Anticipated Product Scarcity
That all leads to the next potential problem: lack of product availability. The upcoming drop off of the $200 tax has already had an effect on the suppressors on store shelves or in the pipeline. With many dealers already offering deals to customers to buy now and they’ll hold the transfer until after the change takes place, it’s only going to get harder to find products when changes come on January 1st.
The Legal Challenge to NFA Registration
While some cheered the tax change as a huge victory, others saw it as not enough. That’s where legal battles have started. Before I get too far into the weeds regarding the legal arguments that have cropped up, let’s take a quick review of what the NFA actually is: a tax roll.
With the NFA, a registration was created as a way to document and keep track of who has paid the required tax imposed by the Act. Originally intended as a tool to hinder the use of certain firearms by criminals during that time, the NFA is now held in disdain by many citizens as an unnecessary hurdle to legal ownership. Especially come January 1st, when the tax requirement goes away. That begs the question: Does that make the NFA outdated and no longer viable?
Enter some forward-thinking groups who are challenging that very thought. They are hoping to make the NFA a thing of the past, this time through the courts. Seen as an unconstitutional and undue restriction on ownership, different lawsuits have been filed to challenge the need for the NFA based on the tax change.
In Brown v. ATF (filed in Missouri) and Jensen v. ATF (filed in Texas), groups like the NRA, ASA-F, Second Amendment Foundation, Firearms Policy Coalition, and others are leading the charge to make the NFA a thing of the past. These lawsuits were filed shortly after the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and at the time of publication, were awaiting a response to motions filed.
Final Takeaways
Sitting on the verge of major changes with the $0 tax for NFA transfers, 2026 is sure to bring some interesting times. I would seriously doubt that the ATF would want to make this transition any harder than it needs to be, as indicated by how the agency has responded to industry over the last few years. But the devil is in the details, as always. Bottom line, if you’re thinking of buying a suppressor with the change taking effect, I’d recommend doing it sooner rather than later.
