Ammunition prices in the United States have long been a roller coaster ride for law abiding citizens. If you have been around the firearms community for more than a few years, you know the drill. Prices stay flat for a while, and then a sudden event sends them skyrocketing. Eventually, the market settles, but the “new normal” is rarely as cheap as the old days. Remember the 1,000 round cases of .22 ammo that sold for $19.99?
These fluctuations happen for several logical reasons. Supply and demand are the primary drivers. When millions of people buy a new firearm, they all need rounds to go with it. When global conflicts erupt, military contracts take priority over civilian store shelves. Raw material costs also play a huge role. If the price of copper or lead goes up, your box of 9mm follows suit.
However, there is a psychological element that is just as powerful: the “shortage loop.” Fears of ammo shortages often help create ammo shortages. When shooters hear a rumor that prices might rise, everyone goes out and starts buying in anticipation. This sudden surge in demand empties shelves and allows retailers to raise prices. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where panic buying fuels the fire.
Ammo in 2026: A Ticking Clock
Over the last two years, we have lived through a strange era of “expensive availability.” Unlike the dark days of 2020, ammunition has generally been easy to find. You can walk into almost any big box store and find 5.56, 9mm, .308, etc. in stock. The problem is that the price tag hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels.
We have grown accustomed to “sale” prices that would have been considered highway robbery five years ago. For a while, it seemed like prices were finally stabilizing. The fear of government restrictions on guns and ammo has not been as high either, which causes the panic to subside, and everything runs smoothly for a while, just with a higher price tag.
But lately, the whispers in the industry have turned into loud warnings. It is no longer just a rumor from a guy at the local gun show. It appears that major manufacturers will be increasing their prices this year; the only question will be, how much?
And so, let’s look at some of the things I think could lead to major ammo shortages and/or price increases this year. I hope I’m wrong, and nothing goes up, but there have been some obvious signs we cannot ignore.
The War in Ukraine and Global Military Demand
The most visible reason to see ammo prices and even shortages is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Modern warfare consumes ammunition at a rate that is difficult for most people to wrap their heads around.
It is estimated that the United States has sent hundreds of millions of rounds of small arms ammunition overseas to support Ukraine. Even for a fast-producing factory, hundreds of millions of rounds is a lot.
When the U.S. government sends ammunition to an ally, it creates a massive vacuum in the supply chain. Manufacturers like Lake City, the massive plant that produces much of our military’s ammo, must prioritize government contracts. When the military needs more rounds, the production lines for civilian sales are the first to be cut back.
This isn’t just about the rounds already sent; it’s about the “refill” as well. The U.S. military is currently working to replenish its own depleted stockpiles. This means that for the foreseeable future, a significant portion of domestic production is spoken for before it’s even made. As long as global tensions remain high, the civilian market will have to compete with the Pentagon for every primer and casing.
The Powder Crisis and the Supply Chain Hurdle
A major blow to the market came recently from AAC (America’s Ammunition Company), the ammo brand owned by Palmetto State Armory. AAC has been a go-to source for budget-conscious shooters for years. They offer high-quality rounds at lower prices than many other manufacturers. However, AAC recently announced it was temporarily suspending operations due to an unforeseen powder shortage.
The reason? They simply cannot get the supplies needed to make the ammo, specifically smokeless powder. PSA’s leadership explained that their primary powder supplier has diverted their entire inventory to fulfill military contracts. Without powder, a factory is just a building full of brass and lead.
AAC is reportedly partnering with a new supplier to build a production facility, but that could take a year or more. This “powder gap” is something to keep an eye on. If it affects a company like AAC, other factories will likely face the same hurdle. Smaller manufacturers could be hit even harder with supply shortages.
Manufacturers Raise the Floor Price
Have you gone to McDonald’s lately and found yourself shocked at the price? They used to be the cheapest place to eat. Now, you may as well just go to a restaurant and buy a steak. Everything across the board appears to be going up. This means supplies for larger manufacturers are increasing as well.
A few weeks ago, a local gun store told me they were notified by Winchester Ammunition that ammo prices would increase after the first of the year. A few days later, a second, and then a third gun store told me the same thing. But the last two said these notifications were coming from just about every ammo supplier they use.
These increases are expected to range from 5% to 10% across their entire product line. This includes all pack sizes and sub-brands. Winchester has cited sustained rises in material costs and global economic pressures as the primary reasons. They also indicated that pricing will now be reviewed quarterly.
This again is a major indicator of future ammo costs. When prices go up across the board like this, it sets a new “floor” for what a box of ammo costs. If you were waiting for prices to drop back to 2019 levels, it doesn’t look like that will happen.
The Global Nitrocellulose Shortage
If you want to know why powder is so hard to find, you have to look at nitrocellulose. This is a key ingredient in modern gunpowder, often called “guncotton.” Currently, there is a global shortage of this material. A large portion of the world’s nitrocellulose is produced using cotton linters sourced from China.
For multiple reasons, the supply of this raw material has become unreliable. This has led to a bidding war for nitrocellulose. When the big players in the global defense industry fight over the same chemicals, what little we can get hold of becomes more expensive. When the supply of gunpowder dries up, every caliber is affected simultaneously.
Raw Material Volatility: Copper and Lead
Besides the gunpowder issue, you also have to consider copper and lead. Both are traded as global commodities. Copper, used for brass casings and bullet jackets, has seen massive demand increases. This is partly due to the “green energy” transition, as electric vehicles require huge amounts of copper.
Lead also faces increasing regulatory pressure. As more mines close and environmental restrictions tighten, the cost of refined lead continues to climb. When you add up the increased cost of copper, lead, and chemicals for primers, the physical cost of manufacturing has risen significantly.
How to Navigate the Boom
The “Powder Keg Boom” is not just a single event; it is a combination of war, shortages, and corporate shifts. While we haven’t seen empty shelves yet, the days of “deal of the century” ammo are likely behind us. At least for now. But regardless of ammo prices and availability, panic buying has always been one of our worst enemies.
Buying the ammunition you need over time is almost always better than waiting for a total shortage and paying triple. Keep an eye on the news, but don’t let the “shortage loop” dictate your entire budget. The best way to handle ammo is to buy slow and steady, just like any other supplies.
If we all go out and try to buy up any ammo we can find, we create the toilet paper effect overnight, and no one wants that, right?
